if the Tories perform better than expected at the general election, it will be because of events that occur between now and then, and not because of the distortive nature of local elections.
"...the Labour leader is polling nowhere near to his 1997 comparison. The reality, though, is that Starmer doesn’t need to beat Tony Blair: he needs to beat Rishi Sunak."
We should keep in mind when reading about American politics, who the candidates are trying to convince (or scare) in order to win. That is, in most cases, why they are saying what they are saying.