The pollster Peter
Kellner predicted in early 2018 that 450,000 net Brexiteers were dying per
annum. On this logic, he suggested that by 2020 Britain would want to remain in
the EU for the foreseeable future. An opaque cloud of smog descended on
Remainers, in which the inevitability of our farewell was soon veiled.
Politicians who are/were
Remain, or are in some way sceptical about Brexit, must realise that any remark
about their incredulity is political suicide. Jess Philips recently fell into
the trap of Brexit-scepticism. She wasn’t the first or last. She revealed to
Andrew Marr that the prospect of re-joining was not far-fetched, and would
depend on the circumstances of the post-Brexit economy. Whether you agree or
not, Philips evidently forgot the outcome of the recent election/ Jo Swinson’s
apologetic face at having led her party to ruin was seemingly not imprinted in
Philips’ mind.
The election was
fought on ‘getting Brexit done’ and that is what 43.6% of voters choose to do,
compared with the meagre 11.5% share to the Liberal Democrats, the only
mainstream pro-remain party.
Remainers, becoming
Remoaners, still do not believe they are in the minority. While the vote in
2016 may have been a battle over a percentile, last year’s election saw a rise
of 47 seats for the Conservatives. The change in demographics which pollsters,
Remainers and Remoaners predicted by 2020 were unequivocally incorrect.
Wounds need to be
licked and placards put aside. Brexit-sceptics need to accept the facts – that
Britain wanted to, and voted to leave the European Union, twice.
Hopeful Labour leader
Sir Keir Starmer has been praised as Shadow Brexit Secretary praised for moving
forward on the question of Brexit. Although Starmer seemed an obvious choice
for the next leader, his Brexit policy is misted by ‘Remain fog.’ Starmer’s
recent decision to call on Labour to back the reintroduction of free movement
within the EU, bringing the issue of migrant toleration to his campaign.
Immigration, and the press hounding of migrants, was, of course, something in
which Brexit was won on. It was based on an accumulation of concerns, mounting
from 2004 onwards, in which the government did not impose immigration
restrictions as many other countries did. The way in which any future leader of
the Labour Party can hope to ever win back any seats – and dare to hope to be
back in a government – is by incorporating Brexit into their strategy for the
‘future’. The electorate is passionate about climate change, and their ‘Green
New Deal’ may gain traction with voters, but not if they do not incorporate
what Britain has already voted on.
The party most
disillusioned, and still clinging to Remain, are indeed the Liberal Democrats,
who have been thrust even further into the political wilderness. The disunity of
Remainers in the election was what Johnson was betting on for his victory,
while the Lib Dem input was the final nail in the coffin for anyone wishing to
remain in the EU. Swinson’s apology to the party at having failed to win and unite
remain voters was lacklustre and ineffectual. Swinson’s apology should not go
out to just her party but to the electorate more widely. It was the Lib Dem’s attacks
on Labour rather than the Conservatives, with their huge misjudgement about the
political mood and desire to split the Remain vote, which has caused the great
loss.
James O’Brien was
forceful after the election in hounding Labour for their misjudgement, and
specifically Corbyn in letting down the electorate by sticking to morals rather
than concrete and popular policy. But this is a responsibility in which Labour
and the Lib Dems share: their Remoaning has forced many people into another
five years of Tory majority, with a further rise of the use of foodbanks (up by
23% in the last year) and some 30,000 deaths, the Royal Society of Medicine
say, are due to austerity policies since 2017.
The election was
always going to be fought on Brexit and it was both parties’ failure which has
contributed to the continuation of such Tory policies on our society.
The prospect of
re-joining the EU has become a lifeline for Remainers to hold on to. The
prospect of rejoining the bloc in the future is, of course, a possibility. Just
as Britain joined the EEC in 1973, after over ten years of rebuff from de
Gaulle and the hostile political climate around immigration in the ‘70s, we can
theoretically join again. There is some tract to say that gaining support for
the Re-join movement would theoretically be doable. Brexit has been won on
‘promises’ of sovereignty, independence and heightened British trade. If
these promises are not adhered to and Johnson’s deal is substandard, then there
is the possibility for such a movement. But those people who want that to
happen must bide their time, for Brexit has to fail, and people have to believe
it has failed, for a re-join movement to ever widespread support.
Where re-joining the
EU seems most probable in Britain is in Scotland and Northern Ireland. With
Sturgeon gunning for a second independence referendum, since 55% of Scots voted
to remain part of Britain in 2014 but 62% voted to remain in the EU two years,
is certainly credible. Donald Tusk, former president of the European Council,
has been positive about the prospect; while he cannot interfere with diplomatic
conventions in a different country he suggested their application as an
independent country would be welcomed. Of course, there are limits to this: re-entry
into the common market would mean Scottish adherence to the EU’s fishing
policy, something deeply unpopular. Scotland also doesn’t qualify fiscally for
membership. Recent data has put their deficit at 7.2%, while member states are
required to have a deficit below 3%. These issues are rectifiable, sure, but independence
would need to be won against the government voters before they would even be
able to apply for membership of the bloc. The process is one that would take
time but may have popular support.
The question of
Ireland and border controls has festered around discussion of Brexit since the
proposition of the ‘Irish backstop.’ After the recent surge in popularity of
Sinn Fein, questions about Ireland’s future and the possibility of
reunification have risen again. Southern Ireland as a member of the European
Union, would automatically pull Northern Ireland in if they reunited so that
the whole of Ireland would be part of the EU. Any border between North and
South has severe historic connotations, and Ireland understandably never wants
to return to full separation. While the customs border would be moved to the
geographical border between the islands, crossed by a ferry, this poses the
question of what the need for a separate North and South is. If Northern
Ireland is part of the customs union and has to go through checks into mainland
Britain anyway, why not remain part of the EU bloc? But there is no saying that
Northern Ireland would decide to do this. It’s all conjecture.
While there is the
possibility of one or both of Northern Ireland or Scotland re-joining the EU,
this will be undertaken outside the parameters of Westminster and would largely
leave Britain (simply England and Wales) more isolated than ever. Accepting
Brexit has therefore become grave importance, and Labour and the Lib Dems must
wake up and incorporate Brexit into their strategy if they ever want to be in
government again. Prospects of re-joining the EU should not be overstated or
clung onto. As the ‘second referendum’ of the election revealed, Britain wanted
to leave, and we have left the European Union.
