Cherwell - Oxford University student newspaper

03:41 | And that's all, folks

"This is our moment, this is our time." Obama's speech, in contrast to McCain's earlier, paints a broad, sweeping vision of America. McCain's was much more focused on micropolicies. Both set out the framework of their general election campaigns this evening, and while Clinton hasn't quit  her race is now finally over.

I'll be back in the next few days to discuss V-P candidates and to look at the fight ahead this November. For now however, afte 54 primary contests that really is all, folks. 

03:18 | Obama's up

By contrast with Clinton's earlier speech, Obama's supporters cheer the Senator's congratulations for his rival.

03:00 | Polls close in Montana

Fox News immediately calls the state for Obama. Expect his victory speech shortly.

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The Democrats big problem

So, here we are at last. Tomorrow marks the final day of the 2008 Democratic Presidential Primary with Montana and South Dakota going to the polls and Clinton potentially making a concession speech. Looking back one of the big questions is whether the extended race has damaged Democratic prospects for November. After all, a combination of record low approval ratings for Bush and growing anti-war sentiment was supposed to equate to a lock on the White House for the Democrats. Now however the Democrats are going to have to heal a split party before they can begin to focus on the McCain challenge.

In this YouTube clip, Senator George McGovern (who switched from Clinton to Obama) outlines what he believes to be the key reason why this prolonged race has been good for the Democratic party is the increased turnout. In short, that the extended contest has brought out millions of extra Democrats and involved dozens of states that have never had such attention lavished on them in the primaries.

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So the more observant among you will notice that I'm not liveblogging the West Virginia returns this evening. That's for a very good reason - the Democratic race is over. Stop crying Hillary fans it is over. It's done.  Here's your five point guide to why:

1. Delegates | It's long been the case, but with the magnitude of Obama's victory in North Carolina last Tuesday it is now effectively impossible for Hillary to catch up the Illinois Senator in pledged delegates. He only needs to win 30% of the remaining delegates. When he wins in Oregon next week, expect him to declare himself the winner (against Karl Rove's advice) as he takes the majority of pledged delegates in the contest (excluding Michigan and Florida - see below).

2. Superdelegates | For all the talk, the superdelegates never were going to be able to overturn the pledged delegate leader at the convention. The damage to the Democratic party would be catastrophic and Democrats could all but forget about the African American vote for years to comeif they were to do this. In the last 7 days Barack has been endorsed by 27 superdelegates and has overtaken Clinton in this category. Any hope Hillary fans had of using superdelegates to secure the nomination is gone, and the momentum (the 'big mo') with endorsements is all in Obama's direction.

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Liveblogging as the Pa. returns come in

03:00 - Status quo | 2 hours after polls closed in the Keystone State it's looking increasingly likely that Hillary will win by an eight to ten point margin. What does that mean? Essentially the status quo will be maintained. Hillary will be very pleased with the night. Despite being massively outspent she's won convincingly. Whilst she's still up against it in the long run the Clinton campaign is able to point to a number of key points in attempting to woo superdelegates. Clinton has demonstrated that Obama, in spite of his financial superiority, isn't able to deliver a knock-out blow. Furthermore, she's won all of the big states including the ones that will prove crucial in November. Of course, whilst this doesn't really signify how Obama would do against McCain in these states, expect Senator Clinton to be arguing that she is better placed to win the general election.

One final point. Should Hillary win by ten points this eveing that will amount to just a 16 delegate pickup over Obama. Given that he is currently 155 delegates ahead that's not going to allow her to catch up soon. For that reason he remains the Democratic front runner. Join me in 2 weeks when Indiana will go to the polls - a state which is very closely split between the two contenders at the moment and which Hillary's campaign has admitted she 'has to win.'

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The fun's all over but just in case you missed it the blog is archived after the jump.  Check back here on March 4th when I'll be liveblogging the crucial Texas and Ohio returns.

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On Thursday 10th June 2010 to be precise. 

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