Oxford’s researchers have released a significant report tracking the complex internal displacement of Ukraine’s population.
Published in the Population and Development Review, the team from the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science estimated that 5.3 million people had been displaced between 25th February and 14th March 2022. The study has been credited alongside others for encouraging the United Nations to amend its initial figure of 1.6 million internally displaced people to 6.5 million by 16th March 2022.
Using a unique metric, researchers were able to incorporate UN data on border-crossings with their own data which tracked active Facebook usage by Ukrainians in the weeks following the Russian invasion. According to lead author Dr Douglas Leasure, these modern methods avoid the inefficiencies of traditional surveying techniques. He explains “by using social media and targeted advertising data, we were able to very quickly collect information on daily active users on Facebook in Ukraine provinces and break them down into five-year age groups and sex.”
Alongside estimates on the absolute number of persons displaced from their home province, the study was also able to map regional displacement, especially among women and children migrating westward. Professor Melinda Miles, Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and senior author of the report, remarked upon the metric’s humanitarian applications: “This metric is one of the only quantitative estimates of internal displacement in virtual real-time, which we are continuing to develop to help those in need during humanitarian crises.”
The researchers are hopeful that the report’s findings could be used to aid vulnerable people still within Ukraine. Prior to the publication of the study, data on displacement in Ukraine had mainly focused on those crossing borders into neighbouring countries.
However, Dr Leasure noted that he and his team had become aware of the need to shed more light on the thirty-eight million Ukrainians who remained in the country: “it became really clear to us that our daily population estimates could help the United Nations and others to assess humanitarian needs and develop a targeted response strategy.”
The Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science continues to strive to provide research in the hope of reaching those Ukrainian civilians who require aid the most. The full report can be found via the Centre’s website: https://www.demographicscience.ox.ac.uk/
