Cherwell - Oxford University student newspaper

Liveblogging as the Pa. returns come in

03:00 - Status quo | 2 hours after polls closed in the Keystone State it's looking increasingly likely that Hillary will win by an eight to ten point margin. What does that mean? Essentially the status quo will be maintained. Hillary will be very pleased with the night. Despite being massively outspent she's won convincingly. Whilst she's still up against it in the long run the Clinton campaign is able to point to a number of key points in attempting to woo superdelegates. Clinton has demonstrated that Obama, in spite of his financial superiority, isn't able to deliver a knock-out blow. Furthermore, she's won all of the big states including the ones that will prove crucial in November. Of course, whilst this doesn't really signify how Obama would do against McCain in these states, expect Senator Clinton to be arguing that she is better placed to win the general election.

One final point. Should Hillary win by ten points this eveing that will amount to just a 16 delegate pickup over Obama. Given that he is currently 155 delegates ahead that's not going to allow her to catch up soon. For that reason he remains the Democratic front runner. Join me in 2 weeks when Indiana will go to the polls - a state which is very closely split between the two contenders at the moment and which Hillary's campaign has admitted she 'has to win.'

02:49 - Popular vote | 42% in and it's 55-45 Clinton. Lots of discussion about the popular vote. Due to the way in which delegates are distributed it is all but impossible for Hillary to catch up with Obama in the delegate count and so catching up in the popular vote is her only hope. The problem here is that there is some doubt over which votes count. Michigan (where Obama wasn't even on the ballot) and Florida were both stripped of their delegates for moving their primaries before February 5, but it is very much in Clinton's interest for these votes to count.  One point that is worth bearing in mind is that even if after tonight (and including those 2 heavily disputed states) Clinton manages to move ahead in the popular vote it will still be very difficult for her to stay there after the nine remaining contests.

02:37 - Trust | In a sign that the Bosnia scandal might have hurt Senator Clinton more than has really been acknowledged, Fox has some interesting data on the issue of trustworthiness. Just 56% of voters polled in today's primary believe that Clinton is trustworthy. That's against Obama's figure of 68%. On the subject of recent attacks Fox reports that the majority of Voters blame Clinton for 'unfair attacks' and most of those voted for Obama - no data on that though. Finally 25% of Democrats who voted for Clinton tonight don't think she will be the Democratic nominee. Just 5% of Obama's supporters don't think he will succeed in Denver at the national convention. Hillary is leading 55-45 with 31% of the vote in.

02:27 - Speeches | There's a bit of doubt at the moment as to who will speak first this evening. Traditionally the loser goes first but Obama is currently on a plane to Indiana which would make that a little tricky. Hillary is reportedly scheduled to speak just before 10pm eastern (ie. in time for the evening news).

02:20 - Ending it | How can Senator Obama win this? That's the question the analysts are currently pondering. According to one Democrat analyst Obama should have been more negative in his attacks on Hillary: I quote, he should have 'taken a bat to her head.'  The problem with negative attacks is that they push up the negatives of both candidates. The bigger issue is whether this will matter in the November. Will negative attacks now come back to haunt candidates later? Essentially no-one is sure though the pundits are tending to take the view that candidates shouldn't be too worried about November in terms of their negatives now.

02:09 - McCain | According to Fox News the McCain camp has released lashings of praise on Hillary for her victory in Pa. Clearly Republicans are happy to see the Democrats keep going at it, leaving McCain free reign to start his general election campaign unscathed. There's no doubt that the long Democratic primary season has harmed both of the remaining candidates with slides for both in polls against McCain in a general election match-up. The recent negative tone of the attacks between the two canndidates hasn't helped matters either.

However, it is easy to read too much into this. There's no doubt that when the Democratic Party finally picks a nominee he, or she, will recieve a bounce in the polls. With the general election so far off at this point projected match-ups against McCain have limited use and the real cost of this prolonged nomination contest won't be clear until general election campaigning really gets going. For the moment however there is no doubt that McCain is happy to let the two candidates attack each other.

With 10% of precinct results in Hillary leads 55-45.

02:04 - CNN | In a slightly amusing sidenote the rally for Hillary in Pa. has CNN on, a network which hasn't yet called the state for Clinton, and so there's no celebrating there yet.

01:56 - Tumbling numbers | With 5% of the raw vote now in Hillary is now leading 53% - 47%. MSNBC have joined Fox News in calling Pa. for Clinton.

Over at Politico.com Ben Smith has posted an early bit of spin from the Clinton campaign. They're pushing the suggestion that Barack should have delivered a knock-out blow given his financial dominance and delegate lead, and the fact that he hasn't is an indication that he would struggle in November in the big states. This is a line which Hillary surrogates are already pushing on the cable networks and is something we're likely to hear more of in the next few weeks.

 
01:46 - Fox News calls | Murdoch's network has called for Hillary. Of course it's the margin that matters so don't go to bed just yet. Still less than 1% of the vote in so the call is on the strength of exit poll numbers.

01:36 - Horse race | Fox have relucantly given their top line number - Hillary is leading by 6 points in their exit poll. But, they note, they are 'very worried' about the numbers and in the past Barack has done better in exit polls than in the final numbers. If that's the case it could be a good night for Hillary. And finally some raw vote numbers: with less than 1% in (literally about 2,000 votes) Hillary is winning 67% to 33% for Obama.

01:27 - Top line numbers | In an unusual move Fox News are refusing to release the top line numbers from their exit polls claiming that it would be misleading to viewers. They certainly have a point. Fox exit polls predicted a Barack victory way back in New Hampshire and the network was left looking silly by the end of the night. Drudge continues to report figures of 52-48 to Clinton. Oh, and I should probably add that John McCain has won the Republican primary. Of course, everyone else on the ballot dropped out of the race over a month ago.

01:23 - Finance | Still no results so there's time to consider one of the big factors that Hillary will need to address in the next couple of weeks. Money. In the last month Obama has spent $30m against Hillary's $20m but the overview is even worse for Clinton. Her campaign is $10m in debt while Obama has a larger warchest for future weeks. If she's going to keep going she's going to have to start bringing in more contributions, and fast.

01:12 - Montgomery County | Bad news if you were planning on heading to bed early. Officials have said that Montgomery county, the third largest in the state, will not have any results until 10 est. (aka. 3am). The networks are going round the pundits at the moment churning over the exit polls without really saying anything. Everyone's waiting for the first results to come through.

01:00 - Polls close | Fox has some early exit polls and things look really good for the New York senator. Clinton is winning amongst seniors 2:1 'better than normal for her.' Clinton has won amongst Union households in a big way - 16 points vs. the 5 point victory she normally manages. Obama has won 92% of the black vote and 58% of the under-30s which isn't as strong as he usually manages. Obama has two-thirds of urban voters but is struggling with independents: tonight they are split down the middle but Obama usually dominates this category.

00:58 - Geography | Fox are listing the Obama strongholds. In the east of the county Pennsylvania county is the big one. The size of turnout there will be crucial in deciding how much of the vote he can claw back. Clinton will be picking up big numbers in Pittsburgh in the west and in the rural areas in the centre.

00:49 - Obama takes off | 11 minutes till polls close (I'm holding out for some kind of dramatic  sweeping graphics from Fox at that point) and it's time to answer the first reader question of the night. Tom asks whether the fact that Obama has already left Pa. for Indiana signifies that Obama has lost by more than he expected. That seems unlikely - polls are too confused and contrasting at this stage for him to really know and it's simply an established tradition for candidates to leave a state before polls close if they know they're going to lose. The big question tonight remains how big Hillary's victory will be. The big question for the remainder of the nomination period is Indiana but more on that later.

If you've got a question, a comment on the recent wave of attack ads or just feel like musing on the returns be sure to comment in the box below.

00:45 - Exits | Drudge has Hillary 52-48 which would be pretty catastrophic for the Clinton camp but don't go to bed just yet. Drudge doesn't provide any raw data and exit polls haven't been great at predicting much of anything thus far.

On another note, whilst analysts are talking about Hillary being in trouble if she wins by fewer than ten points her camp has already sworn to carry on. They have however admitted that she needs to win Indiana in two weeks time.

00:38 - Game time | Fox News have rebranded their ticker for tonight's fun and games. As I join them the discussion is focused around Hillary's comment on Iran. On a talkshow earlier today Clinton said that (and I'm paraphrasing here) 'if Iran is foolish enough to attack Israel we will obliterate them.'

Meanwhile exit polls are up on the Drudge Report but there are many floating around with wildly different results.

19:20 - It's been a while but here we are at yet another primary day in the race for the Democratic nomination - make that the 18th day at the polls to be precise.

Some 77 days after Super Tuesday we still find ourselves without a Democratic nominee and tonight could change that. Pennsylvania's 188 delegates make up the largest number held by any of the remaining states and given the demographics if Hillary fails to win here its game over for the New York senator. The polls however suggest this is unlikely - Hillary is anything from 5 to 10 points clear at the moment. The key figure, most commentators seem to agree, is 10. This is the margin Hillary won be in demographically similar Ohio on March 4th and if she doesn't win by this much again Obama can claim to have fought back in an area which should be prime Clinton territory. A few weeks ago Senator Obama was 16 points back and with the notorious unreliability of polling in this election cycle anything could happen.

Results from Pennsylvania will be in shortly after 1am when polls close and I'll be back then with all the action.

In the meantime why not post your predictions below and here are some links to tide you over:

One enterprising YouTuber has mashed together debate footage and the Sarah Silverman spoof 'I'm f-ing Matt Damon' to create 'I'm f-ing Obama'

Hillary Clinton has dropped Osama bin Laden into a newly released advert, leading to accusations of fear-mongering:

 Hillary's been in more trouble just this morning by threatening to 'obliterate' Iran.

The Guardian cartoonists have had some fun at the candidates' expense.

And even though the Republican race was settled weeks ago John McCain has been doing his best to keep in the headlines. Today's New York Times gives him a headline, but perhaps not the kind he was hoping for. The article alleges that McCain used his office to help a friend - a wealthy real estate developer:  A Developer, His Deals, and His Ties to McCain

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